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High School Basketball Coach
University of Cincinnati Graduate
Center of Fiduciary Studies Graduate


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} catch(err) {}</description><title>Zack Shepard's blogSanity</title><generator>Tumblr (3.0; @zackshepard)</generator><link>http://www.zackshepard.net/</link><item><title>The reality of investing in IPO’s is that they are highly...</title><description>&lt;img src="http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m48d6k5pTb1qzxargo1_500.png"/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;p&gt;The reality of investing in IPO’s is that they are highly risky and highly costly.  Other than that, they are great.  For every Google, there are thousands of failures.  Don’t get caught betting on which companies will survive.  #facebookipo&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;span&gt;Chart via: Ritter, Jay R., Some Factoids About the 2009 IPO Market, University of Florida&lt;/span&gt; &lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</description><link>http://www.zackshepard.net/post/23299098571</link><guid>http://www.zackshepard.net/post/23299098571</guid><pubDate>Fri, 18 May 2012 14:11:00 -0400</pubDate><category>ipo</category></item><item><title>Mark Matson on Advising Main Street Investors</title><description>&lt;object id="wsj_fp" width="400" height="283"&gt;&lt;param name="movie" value="http://s.marketwatch.com/media/swf/main.swf" /&gt;&lt;param name="allowFullScreen" value="true" /&gt;&lt;param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always" /&gt;&lt;param name="flashvars" value="videoGUID={F8D8C177-479A-4C91-8FC4-180B48CACE4B}&amp;playerid=2001&amp;plyMediaEnabled=1&amp;configURL=http://m.wsj.net/video-players/&amp;autoStart=false" base="http://s.marketwatch.com/media/swf/" /&gt;&lt;embed src="http://s.marketwatch.com/media/swf/main.swf" bgcolor="#FFFFFF" flashvars="videoGUID={F8D8C177-479A-4C91-8FC4-180B48CACE4B}&amp;playerid=2001&amp;plyMediaEnabled=1&amp;configURL=http://m.wsj.net/video-players/&amp;autoStart=false" base="http://s.marketwatch.com/media/swf/" name="flashPlayer" width="400" height="283" seamlesstabbing="false" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" swliveconnect="true" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/shockwave/download/index.cgi?P1_Prod_Version=ShockwaveFlash"&gt;&lt;/embed&gt;&lt;/object&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;p&gt;Mark Matson on Advising Main Street Investors&lt;/p&gt;</description><link>http://www.zackshepard.net/post/22671492993</link><guid>http://www.zackshepard.net/post/22671492993</guid><pubDate>Tue, 08 May 2012 17:22:24 -0400</pubDate></item><item><title>Q&amp;A With Zack Shepard</title><description>&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;img height="1" src="http://insidepenton.com/images/fc-bar.jpg" width="665"/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;img src="http://registeredrep.com/images/Zack.jpg"/&gt;&lt;strong&gt;W&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;strong class="style1"&gt;hen Coaching Makes Dollars and Sense&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Like any professional, financial advisors can benefit from having an objective, outside consultant advise them on how to maximize their performance. It&amp;#8217;s becoming a popular practice, particularly as market volatility, heightened client demands, and profit pressures are challenging advisors in ways that may not be familiar to many. To gain more insight, we talked to Zack Shepard, a director at Matson Money, a Cincinnati-based investment advisor and provider of coaching services to financial advisors.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;span class="style1"&gt;How can a coach assist the financial advisor?&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;When we start a coaching relationship we conduct an inventory of the advisor&amp;#8217;s practice. The three biggest problems that plague advisors are time, money and marketing.  We are committed to solving those problems. We coach the advisor to meet with groups of clients rather than one-on-one, as is often customary, encouraging these clients to bring along guests. That way advisors can solidify their present relationships, leverage their working hours and at the same time grow their business on the money side.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Our coaches are seasoned financial professionals who understand the long-term mechanics of the markets, knowing where market returns or premiums come from, how to design a portfolio to capture these premiums. And they understand the three simple rules for successful investing: own equities, diversify globally and rebalance. &lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Advisors who work with coaches can improve by learning the required discipline to navigate their investment plans, even when being pressured by clients or other outside influences to make irrational or emotional investment decisions. The most common are fear and greed. Both can be extremely detrimental. An example of fear would be to panic and sell at or near a market bottom and go to cash. On the other hand, greed can come into play by chasing ‘hot&amp;#8217; sectors.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt; Of course, advisors have to understand that they do not get paid to panic and therefore it is their job to not enable dysfunctional – and potentially detrimental- financial behavior.  Successful investing is like losing weight, almost everybody knows how to do it but not everyone has the discipline to pull it off. Our job is to make sure advisors are delivering the proper message to their clients, which is to remain ultra-diversified, rebalance on the market lows and stay long-term oriented.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p class="style1"&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Are coaches for rookies, the advisors learning the ropes?&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Coaches are not just for rookies. Financial professionals with all levels of experience can benefit from consulting with an advisor coach. In fact, we often encourage experienced advisors to take a moment to look at their current philosophy. Are they really doing what&amp;#8217;s in their clients&amp;#8217; best interest? When market volatility is running rampant as it has been in the past months, an advisor coach will reiterate that it is not a time to panic, but instead a chance to capitalize or embrace the volatility.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p class="style1"&gt;&lt;strong&gt;What should financial advisors look for in a coach? &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To make the advisor perform at his or her best, our coaches can help the advisor to focus on the right investment solutions for their clients. We can offer portfolio [models] the advisors can share with their clients to maximize their practice. However, an advisor coach&amp;#8217;s work goes beyond teaching the nuts and bolts of disciplined investing and traditional financial planning. The role is to ask the questions that you may never have asked yourself before:  Have you identified your personal risk tolerance? Have you defined your investment philosophy? Do you consistently and predictably achieve market returns?  A coach will help to establish the proper investment philosophy, implement a strategy and provide disciplined guidance for the individual investor.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p class="style1"&gt;&lt;strong&gt;How can a financial advisor measure results from coaching?&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt; I think the best way to measure results is to make sure all of the advisors we coach are able to maintain peace of mind. We need to keep our advisors focused on the next 20 years, not the next 20 days. If an advisor is up all night worrying about the short-term volatility in the markets and what might happen to his clients&amp;#8217; portfolios, then we haven&amp;#8217;t done our job as a coach.  Same goes for the investors he or she works with.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p class="style1"&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Any success stories?&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Most advisors can hang in there when the market is up. But prolonged volatility can cause even the most experienced advisors to make irrational decisions for his clients. A successful coaching moment for us was at the end of 2008 and beginning of 2009. We were coaching our advisors to sell fixed income securities and rebalance back into more equities for clients. That was not the conventional approach at the time, but for advisors who knew they needed to take that leap, having a coach instill in them the confidence of their convictions was an important role.  In this regard, a coach should be able to provide you with the confidence of knowing you are serving your clients in the best ways possible. &lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p class="style1"&gt;&lt;strong&gt;The trend in demand for coaching?&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We currently coach over 400 financial professionals of which over 60 have come to us just in 2011 alone. It&amp;#8217;s safe to say that this is an area that is in expansion mode, especially with continued market instability. Advisors are becoming more open to accepting third-party guidance as a part of their asset management process.  Those providing advice as a profession generally value advice given to them. &lt;/p&gt;</description><link>http://www.zackshepard.net/post/21326171504</link><guid>http://www.zackshepard.net/post/21326171504</guid><pubDate>Wed, 18 Apr 2012 11:20:12 -0400</pubDate><category>coaching</category><category>financial advisors</category></item><item><title>Undercover Operation Shows Broker Advice Missteps</title><description>&lt;p&gt;&lt;span class="articleLocatio&amp;lt;/span&amp;gt;n"&gt;(Reuters) - People make a lot of dumb investing mistakes. And they should not expect financial advisers to correct them.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;That is one finding from two studies that used actors posing as middle- and upper-middle-class Americans looking for financial advice. Their experiences should set off alarm bells for investors and the compliance officers who monitor adviser behavior.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The undercover visits - nearly 800 in total made in 2008 and again in 2011 - are detailed in a study recently published by the National Bureau of Economic Research and another to be released by June. Researchers wanted to know if advisers tried to correct investors if they were going down a high-risk road, such as concentrating their money in a hot sector or their employer&amp;#8217;s stock.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The result? The study found advisers often reinforced harmful investor behavior when it was in their best interest to do so.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For instance, actors who pretended that their investments were concentrated in the latest hot industry should have been told to diversify their holdings. Instead many advisers who work on commission - often called brokers - supported the trend-chasing strategy. One reason: brokers can turn over a concentrated portfolio frequently as one hot idea fades and another catches fire, the study said.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Most of the advisers studied were paid commissions generated from products they sold.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;When fees were mentioned, advisers downplayed them, the study revealed. For example, an adviser might say &amp;#8220;this fund has a 2 percent fee but that is not much above industry average.&amp;#8221; That is at least double what an investor should be paying, even for an actively managed fund, said Jeff Tjornehoj, a senior research analyst with Lipper who was not involved in the study.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Actors who said they were invested in low-fee, diversified index funds were frequently told to move into more expensive actively managed funds that would earn the broker a larger commission.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Meanwhile, advisers were significantly more likely to steer someone toward low-cost index funds only when actors said they had all of their money in cash.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While actively managed funds could be a sound move for some clients, said Sophie Schmitt, a senior analyst with the research firm Aite Group, the study authors operated from the premise that the returns on actively managed funds are almost always worse for clients after taking the higher fees into account. The study did not name the firms the actors visited.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Brokers also made other, more basic missteps. Actors were not regularly asked questions about their income, occupation and marital status - all factors that impact how much risk a client should take.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There is no suggestion that the advisers the actors visited did anything illegal. But the results revealed a mismatch between the financial advice clients need and what they end up with - financial products that may not be the best fit but generate a healthy commission for the adviser, said Antoinette Schoar, a co-author of the study and professor of &lt;a href="http://www.reuters.com/finance" title="Full coverage of finance" target="_blank"&gt;finance&lt;/a&gt; at MIT&amp;#8217;s Sloan School of Management.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The first study, originally released as a working paper in 2010, was based on 284 client meetings in 2008 with retail financial advisers who worked in banks, independent brokerages and investment advisory firms. The results of 500 additional undercover meetings conducted in 2011 will be released by June. Schoar said the results of those visits closely mirror the 2008 results.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The actors visited advisers in the Boston and New York areas pretending to have savings of either $45,000 to $55,000 or of $95,000 to $105,000. The actors were given scripts and were trained on financial literacy - then tested on their knowledge - before meeting with advisers. Actors took notes on information given to them by advisers and then had 24 hours after the meeting to complete the study&amp;#8217;s online questionnaire about the visit.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;COMPLIANCE NEEDS&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In contrast to fee-based advisers, who charge clients based on the amount of money they manage and are required to put the clients&amp;#8217; interest first, brokers paid on commission only have to recommend investments that are suitable for clients, regardless of whether one choice costs much more or leads to a higher commission for the broker.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Either way, compliance officers are charged with training advisers on the steps that need to be taken in meetings with all new clients - and they must monitor for missteps.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;When advisers working under the suitability standard recommend a product, they are required by the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the industry&amp;#8217;s private regulator, to attempt to gather and analyze information on a client&amp;#8217;s investment objectives, other holdings, financial situation and tax status.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Compliance officers should routinely sample advisers&amp;#8217; paperwork to look for answers to basic demographic questions, said Blaine Aikin, chief executive of fi360, which provides training, analytical tools and support for advisers. They should also check that each client has an investment policy statement with their goals, limitations and risk tolerance, Aikin said.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While study co-author Schoar faults the industry for not aligning the interests of clients and advisers, she said clients also bear blame for the bad direction they receive from brokers.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;They are often reluctant to pay advisers just for advice and instead want something to show for their money, like a product. And many clients do not take the time to figure out if an adviser is steering them in the right direction or simply trying to earn a bigger commission.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Case in point: 70 percent of the actors in the study said they would bring their own money back to the adviser they met.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;(Reporting By Jennifer Hoyt Cummings in New York; Editing by Jennifer Merritt and &lt;a href="http://blogs.reuters.com/search/journalist.php?edition=us&amp;amp;n=matthew.lewis&amp;amp;" target="_blank"&gt;Matthew Lewis&lt;/a&gt;)&lt;/p&gt;</description><link>http://www.zackshepard.net/post/20527702308</link><guid>http://www.zackshepard.net/post/20527702308</guid><pubDate>Thu, 05 Apr 2012 10:53:02 -0400</pubDate><category>investing</category><category>investor behavior</category><category>Broker</category></item><item><title>Gotta love Margaret Thatcher!</title><description>&lt;iframe width="400" height="300" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/okHGCz6xxiw?wmode=transparent&amp;autohide=1&amp;egm=0&amp;hd=1&amp;iv_load_policy=3&amp;modestbranding=1&amp;rel=0&amp;showinfo=0&amp;showsearch=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;p&gt;Gotta love Margaret Thatcher!&lt;/p&gt;</description><link>http://www.zackshepard.net/post/18765480851</link><guid>http://www.zackshepard.net/post/18765480851</guid><pubDate>Sun, 04 Mar 2012 20:39:12 -0500</pubDate></item><item><title>Check out this Sneak Peek at an upcoming public television...</title><description>&lt;iframe width="400" height="225" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/Wc7IjPMoow4?wmode=transparent&amp;autohide=1&amp;egm=0&amp;hd=1&amp;iv_load_policy=3&amp;modestbranding=1&amp;rel=0&amp;showinfo=0&amp;showsearch=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;p&gt;Check out this Sneak Peek at an upcoming public television program called Main Street Money with Mark Matson.&lt;/p&gt;</description><link>http://www.zackshepard.net/post/16593171014</link><guid>http://www.zackshepard.net/post/16593171014</guid><pubDate>Fri, 27 Jan 2012 15:48:24 -0500</pubDate></item><item><title>The Entire Investment Profession Is Built On An Illusion Of Skill</title><description>&lt;p&gt;Money managers across the globe had better take a contract out on Daniel Kahneman, a Princeton Professor of Psychology, who won the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences for pioneering work with the late Amos Tversky on decision making.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One revolutionary thrust of Kahneman ‘s new bestseller, “Thinking, Fast and Slow”– is that all the predictions by analysts, economists, corporate CEOs and cable tv talking heads about the stock market in 2012 are pure unadulterated guesswork and beliefs that are in effect an illusion of the future they project.  So much for George Soros and Warren Buffett and Bill Gross and Larry Fink and Byron Wien, and all the other highly paid and acclaimed soothsayers of  the markets. Think how few of them got the markets right. Gross predicted inflation would wrack the bond market.  Soros a gold bubble, Buffett a much healthier economy. I’m told hardly anyone got 2011 to any meaningful extent correctly.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For Kahneman has decided that ” a major industry appears to be built largely on an illusion of skill. Billions of shares are traded every day, with many people buying each stock and others selling it to them… The puzzle is why buyers and sellers alike think that the current price is wrong… For most of them, that belief is an illusion.”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Wow!. This seems to go further than Burton Malkiel’s ” A Random Walk Down Wall Street.” It seems to suggest that there is no such thing as “smart money.” It is really only “lucky money.” After all at least 2 of every 3 mutual funds underperform the overall market in any given year. I can tell you the most I’ve made on Power Ball is $3.00. I’m still looking for that killing. Pure unadulterated luck required.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I guess the whole idea of ” a black swan” like the meltdown in mortgage backed bonds t hat kicked off in 2007 and ran markets everywhere ragged in 2008– was not an inevitable event that could have been predicted, except maybe by NYU economist Nouriel Roubini, who definitely predicted disaster and the course it would take.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Kahneman agrees that some people “ thought well in Advance that there would be a crisis, but they did not know it.” Kahneman insists that you can’t really “know” something is going to happen “if it is both true and knowable.” Kahneman pours cold water on the idea of prescience, calling it undeserved. So,  at minimum you had better stop spending useless money consulting a fortune teller, or asking your Uncle Sid about his latest hot stock.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;He  suggests the prognosticators  did not conclusively believe ” a catastrophe was imminent.” Kahneman puts down the notion of intuition and premonition; this language does not mean we can think clearly enough about the past to predict the future.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Luck, chance, randomness play a much more powerful role than we ever thought possible. You should be getting very anxious right at this point. You mean my investment icon, Warren Buffett, is just lucky? Maybe the stocks he buys go up because he buys them– not because they are of superior profitability and management skills.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Certainty of our judgement is then illusory.  Kahneman writes of “ The Halo Effect,” a book by Philip Rosenzweig, which shows that writers(not investors) “exaggerate the impact of leadership and management in providing CEOs with the “halo effect,” they may not really deserve.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A study of Fortune’s Most Admired Companies found over a 20 year period that “the firms with t he worst ratings went on to earn much higher stock returns than t he most admired firms.” What a punch in the soilar plexus t hat was.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“Considering how little we know, the confidence we have in our beliefs is preposterous– and it is also essential,” writes Kahneman at t he top of a chapter on “The Illusion of Validity.” Ouch! I’ve been all t his time just using my own personal “illusions of validity.”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</description><link>http://www.zackshepard.net/post/15361491670</link><guid>http://www.zackshepard.net/post/15361491670</guid><pubDate>Thu, 05 Jan 2012 16:42:00 -0500</pubDate><category>markets</category><category>investing</category><category>investor behavior</category></item><item><title>Top 3 Myths of Capitalism</title><description>&lt;iframe width="400" height="225" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/KGPa5Ob-5Ps?wmode=transparent&amp;autohide=1&amp;egm=0&amp;hd=1&amp;iv_load_policy=3&amp;modestbranding=1&amp;rel=0&amp;showinfo=0&amp;showsearch=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;p&gt;Top 3 Myths of Capitalism&lt;/p&gt;</description><link>http://www.zackshepard.net/post/13645181108</link><guid>http://www.zackshepard.net/post/13645181108</guid><pubDate>Fri, 02 Dec 2011 15:53:00 -0500</pubDate><category>capitalism</category><category>economy</category><category>economics</category></item><item><title>Great Daily Show clip about the hype and horror of Wall Street.</title><description>						&lt;embed style="display:block" src="http://media.mtvnservices.com/mgid:cms:item:comedycentral.com:400847" width="512" height="288" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="window" allowfullscreen="true" flashvars="autoPlay=false" allowscriptaccess="always" allownetworking="all" bgcolor="#000000"&gt;&lt;/embed&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;p&gt;Great Daily Show clip about the hype and horror of Wall Street.&lt;/p&gt;</description><link>http://www.zackshepard.net/post/12248356958</link><guid>http://www.zackshepard.net/post/12248356958</guid><pubDate>Wed, 02 Nov 2011 14:46:59 -0400</pubDate></item><item><title>Reality Show for Investors: “Survivor”</title><description>&lt;p&gt;&lt;span&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Anyone studying the long-run history of American business cannot help but observe how many of the prominent firms of one era fail to make it to the next. Free-market economies are characterized not only by intense competition but also by disruptive change. Sometimes a company’s toughest competitor turns out to be a firm it has never heard of selling a product or service that didn’t exist until recently. The list of companies that once dominated their industry but have fallen on hard times is lengthy enough to give every thoughtful investor reason for sober reflection.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Among many possible examples, a number of firms come to mind that were once highly regarded but later encountered serious or even fatal problems.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;ul&gt;&lt;li&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Bethlehem Steel pioneered the steel I-beam, which launched a skyscraper boom in cities across the country. Its engineering expertise supplied the steel sections for the Golden Gate Bridge. But growing competition and a changing marketplace eventually took their toll, and the firm filed for bankruptcy in 2001.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In 1973, Eastman Kodak held a seemingly impregnable position in the lucrative market for photo film and chemicals, enjoyed a reputation for innovation and astute marketing, and boasted a market value even greater than oil giant Exxon. Kodak shareholders had been favored with an uninterrupted stream of dividends dating back to 1902. Today the company is struggling to reinvent itself as the film business shrivels, the dividend has been suspended, and the share price is limping along under $3.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A &lt;em&gt;Fortune&lt;/em&gt; article profiling Pfizer in mid-1998 praised it for having “one of the richest product pipelines in the Fortune 500.” A Wall Street analyst enthused that “some of my clients refer to Pfizer as the best company in the S&amp;amp;P 500.” In early 1999, a &lt;em&gt;Forbes&lt;/em&gt; cover story sounded a similar note, crowning Pfizer “Company of the Year” and observing that “the people who brought us Viagra have more blockbusters on the way.” Thirteen years later, the Viagra boom has subsided, patents are expiring on highly profitable products, and the gusher investors expected from the research pipeline has slowed to a trickle. The share price has slumped over 50% since year-end 1998 compared to a 3% loss for the S&amp;amp;P 500 Index.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;/ul&gt;&lt;p&gt;Some companies almost single-handedly create new industries but still find it difficult to turn innovation into a permanent advantage. Pan Am (air travel), Kmart (discount retailing), Polaroid (instant photography), and Wang Laboratories (word processing) all had impressive initial success and provided handsome rewards for their investors. Alas, neither Pan Am nor Polaroid survives today, and Kmart shareholders were wiped out when the firm emerged from bankruptcy in 2003. (Kmart, Polaroid, and Wang Laboratories were all cited as examples of “excellent” companies in the 1982 bestseller &lt;em&gt;In Search of Excellence&lt;/em&gt;.)&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Evidence of this “creative destruction” appears all around us. For example, the&lt;em&gt;Wall Street Journal&lt;/em&gt; reported that shares of Minnesota-based Best Buy Co. slumped Wednesday to their lowest level since 2008 after reporting a 30% drop in quarterly profits. For most of its life, Best Buy has been the toughest kid on the block, vanquishing rivals such as Highland Superstores and Circuit City on its way to becoming the nation&amp;#8217;s leading electronics retailer.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Will Best Buy fall victim to even tougher competitors such as Amazon.com or Walmart? Or is this current downturn just a speed bump on the road to even greater success? No one can say. For every riches-to-rags story, we can find another tale of decline followed by dramatic recovery. According to some accounts, for example, Apple was only a few months from bankruptcy when Steve Jobs returned to the company in 1997. Now it vies with ExxonMobil for the number one spot in a ranking by market cap. And who would have imagined that a floundering New England textile firm with a low-margin business that sells suit-lining fabric would one day become a financial colossus known as Berkshire Hathaway?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The thrill of owning a great growth company during its most lucrative phase is a powerful incentive to search for the Next Big Thing. But almost every company with a highly profitable position is under constant attack from competitors seeking to garner a portion of those hefty profits for themselves.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As a result, the search for firms destined to generate greater-than-expected profits for many years into the future is fraught with peril and likely to end in frustration. Most investors will be far better off harnessing the forces of competitive markets and putting them to work on their behalf by holding a diversified portfolio. As Nobel laureate Merton Miller once observed, “Above-normal profits always carry with them the seeds of their own decay.”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;span class="source"&gt;Miguel Bustillo and Matt Jarzemsky, “Best Buy Gets Squeezed” &lt;em&gt;Wall Street Journal&lt;/em&gt;, September 14, 2011.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;span class="source"&gt;David Stipp, “Why Pfizer Is So Hot,” &lt;em&gt;Fortune&lt;/em&gt;, May 11, 1998.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;span class="source"&gt;“Pfizer: Company of the Year,” &lt;em&gt;Forbes&lt;/em&gt;, January 11, 1999.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;span class="source"&gt;Standard &amp;amp; Poor’s &lt;em&gt;Stock Guide&lt;/em&gt;, 1974.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;span class="source"&gt;Thomas Peters and Robert Waterman, &lt;em&gt;In Search of Excellence&lt;/em&gt; (HarperCollins, 1982).&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;span class="source"&gt;Merton Miller, “Is American Corporate Governance Fatally Flawed?” &lt;em&gt;Journal of Applied Corporate Finance&lt;/em&gt;, Vol. 6, No. 4, Winter 1994.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;span class="source"&gt;Content from Dimensional Fund Advisors.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</description><link>http://www.zackshepard.net/post/10479315452</link><guid>http://www.zackshepard.net/post/10479315452</guid><pubDate>Wed, 21 Sep 2011 09:03:40 -0400</pubDate><category>investing</category></item><item><title>Estonian Exceptionalism</title><description>&lt;p&gt;&lt;span&gt;
&lt;p&gt;PLUNGING unemployment, rocketing growth, soaring exports and a budget surplus: that is the story of Estonia as it bounces back from a precipitous economic collapse. This burst of good news shows not only the virtues of flexibility and austerity (a sensitive subject, as other euro countries taste the same medicine); it also gives heart to Latvia and Lithuania.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Estonia’s GDP growth rate in the first quarter of the year was 8.5%, the highest in the European Union. It boasts the biggest drop in unemployment, from 18.8% to 13.8%. It has the lowest debt in the EU, of just 6.6% of GDP; measured by the price of credit-default swaps, it is among the ten best sovereign risks in Europe. Fitch, a rating agency, has just raised Estonia’s standing to A+.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;img alt=" " src="http://media.economist.com/images/images-magazine/2011/07/16/eu/20110716_euc184.gif"/&gt;&lt;span class="credit"&gt; &lt;/span&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Strong export growth (up by 53% year-on-year in May) and industrial production (up 26%) reflect in part soaring production of mobile-phone kit at the country’s largest exporter, Ericsson. But the recovery is broader-based. Eva-Maria Ounapuu of Joik, which makes “simple, Nordic, minimalist” cosmetics, says the recession made consumers turn to local products. Now that this market is “all but saturated”, she is starting to export.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;&lt;br/&gt;A bigger question is whether other countries can match this. Estonia boasts unusually thrifty politicians and an open public culture. It scores well in business-friendliness and clean-government rankings. Taxes are flat and low (the government has just moved to cut income tax from 21% to 20% in 2015).&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Policymakers in all three Baltic countries feel vindicated: during the crisis many outsiders told them to unpeg their currencies from the euro. Instead they pressed ahead with “internal devaluation”, meaning whopping fiscal adjustments (9% of GDP in Estonia’s case) and big cuts in nominal wages. Yet long-term competitiveness is still a concern. Although inflation is slowing, the central bank in Tallinn worries about overheating. The previous boom brought double-digit growth and reckless lending, followed by a construction bust and a 14% fall in GDP. Estonians hope that the banks (almost all foreign-owned) have learned from the past.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Still, next-door Latvia (which had an international bail-out in 2009) and Lithuania are eager to follow the Estonian example. They also have booming exports (up by 38% and 42%, respectively, in the year to May). Lithuania is also enjoying a storming recovery in the shops. The pair hope to follow Estonia into the euro, reducing their currency risk and boosting their image with investors. But the go-ahead Estonians are already scenting the next challenge. Should the single currency crumble, they are determined to be on the inside track for any new German-centred “super-euro”. Goodbye “eastern Europe”; welcome to the “new north”.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;Source: &lt;/span&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.economist.com/node/18959241" target="_blank"&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.economist.com/node/18959241" target="_blank"&gt;http://www.economist.com/node/18959241&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;span&gt;

&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</description><link>http://www.zackshepard.net/post/9995130486</link><guid>http://www.zackshepard.net/post/9995130486</guid><pubDate>Fri, 09 Sep 2011 10:42:09 -0400</pubDate><category>economy</category></item><item><title>Active vs. Passive Management</title><description>&lt;a href="http://www.dfaus.com/2009/05/active-vs-passive-management.html"&gt;Active vs. Passive Management&lt;/a&gt;: &lt;p&gt;&lt;span&gt;The above link is a transcript of Rex Sinquefield’s opening statement in debate with Donald Yacktman at the Schwab Institutional conference in San Francisco, October 12, 1995.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</description><link>http://www.zackshepard.net/post/9049993874</link><guid>http://www.zackshepard.net/post/9049993874</guid><pubDate>Wed, 17 Aug 2011 16:52:44 -0400</pubDate></item><item><title>The Error-Proof Portfolio: Normal People Don't Invest Like This</title><description>&lt;a href="http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=391398#.TklaBPZ5PMU.tumblr"&gt;The Error-Proof Portfolio: Normal People Don't Invest Like This&lt;/a&gt;</description><link>http://www.zackshepard.net/post/8957602193</link><guid>http://www.zackshepard.net/post/8957602193</guid><pubDate>Mon, 15 Aug 2011 13:40:28 -0400</pubDate></item><item><title>Gambler or Investor? The Truth About Why We Trade</title><description>&lt;p&gt;&lt;span&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It is a well-worn cliche. The stock market is the capitalist casino, a place where gambling wears a thin mask called investing.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It is a place where &amp;#8220;buy gold&amp;#8221; or &amp;#8220;buy Pandora&amp;#8221; can sound a lot like &amp;#8220;come on, seven!&amp;#8221;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The idea, of course, is that we so-called investors aren&amp;#8217;t actually putting our money to work. We are engaging in a socially acceptable version of the lotto. We are betting the odds. Like a player at the craps table, we are trying to get hot—riding the momentum of a bull market, pulling back when the wheel of fortune goes cold.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;And, just as anyone who goes to Las Vegas knows that the house usually wins, investors know that trading can be a cruel game.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There is some truth to that analysis, of course. But is it the whole truth? Is &lt;span&gt;Warren Buffett&lt;/span&gt; simply playing a more respectable version of Texas hold &amp;#8216;em? Is &lt;span&gt;John Paulson&lt;/span&gt; counting mortgages like card counter in a game of single-deck blackjack?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The answer to a large degree depends on whom you ask. Investors, academics, gambling addicts and psychologists all have their own take. Neurologists have their own observations about pleasure centers in the brain. A common thread runs through the different opinions: We get in trouble when we trade for thrills.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;#8220;In gambling, the act is done for the love or &amp;#8216;thrill&amp;#8217; of it,&amp;#8221; said Prakesh Deeriya, a finance professor at the University of North Texas.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In that way, the thrill of gambling differs from trading, Mr. Deeriya said , because &amp;#8220;the &amp;#8216;thrill&amp;#8217; itself is the reward. In speculation, the return on investments is the reward, or at least the expectation of getting a return is the reward.&amp;#8221;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The distinction changes, he said, when a trader gets the thrill from pushing the button, when the high comes from playing the game, rather from winning it. &amp;#8220;If it is there,&amp;#8221; he said, &amp;#8220;then one can say that is gambling.&amp;#8221;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Not surprisingly, investors have a different take depending on their discipline. Elie Rosenberg, who runs the ValueSlant.com blog is a value investor. He sees the distinction between gambling and investing as a distinction between buy-and-hold investing and speculation.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mr. Rosenberg quotes American economist Ben Graham, who argued that &amp;#8220;investment is most successful when it is most businesslike. An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and a satisfactory return.&amp;#8221;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Anything else, Mr. Rosenberg says, is probably gambling.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Gambling addicts would probably agree. A Gamblers Anonymous member told me that investing is a common topic in the group&amp;#8217;s discussions. Some members share stories about how obsessive trading disrupts lives and leads to financial and personal ruin.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The group has a general rule that members should hold a stock for at least 18 months—if they invest in stocks at all. Commodities and options trading seem to be a particular problem.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The link between gambling and trading isn&amp;#8217;t just a personal one, said Steven Weisman, a professor who teaches entertainment and gambling law at Bentley University in Boston. Recent Internet gambling laws have excluded day trading which, he said, &amp;#8220;is as much of a gamble as any throw of the dice or bet on a horse.&amp;#8221;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mr. Weisman seems to agree that long-term investing is different from speculative trading, which is more akin to gambling. He notes that the brokerage firm Cantor Fitzgerald launched a mobile gaming device for casino use that piggybacks on technology developed for the markets.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Sometimes, the line between investing and gambling can be hard to see. Tony Emerson, an investor and gambler in Austin, Texas, said that what starts out as research-driven investing can turn into a blind gamble quickly.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;#8220;Consumer sentiment is impossible to predict,&amp;#8221; Mr. Emerson said. &amp;#8220;Models and analyses that once seemed to work to predict stock movement failed when the economy crashed.&amp;#8221;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Still, it doesn&amp;#8217;t take a market collapse for the similarities to show themselves.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;#8220;The losses and gains are generally less dramatic than craps, blackjack, roulette or poker. But just like gambling, the more you risk, the more you stand to gain,&amp;#8221; Mr. Emerson said.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The real problem, according to Todd Tresidder, a former hedge-fund manager who is now a financial coach, is that most people don&amp;#8217;t understand the odds. He argues what sounds like card-counting the markets: knowing the math takes gambling out of the equation.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;#8220;If you invest like most people, there is no difference,&amp;#8221; Mr. Tresidder said. Investors, he argues, understand the odds. &amp;#8220;The only way you will profit over time is either by sheer luck or by betting on positive mathematical expectancy situations,&amp;#8221; he said.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mr. Tresidder has a point about knowing the odds, but don&amp;#8217;t a lot of gamblers know the odds? They pull the trigger, make the wager, or trade anyway. It is the thrill of betting that they love.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Maggie Baker, a clinical psychologist in Philadelphia, said that the neurological similarities between traders and gamblers are striking. Whether they are about to make a trade or plunking down a bet, the pleasure center in the brain lights up, Ms. Baker said.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It says: &amp;#8220;Oh, boy, I&amp;#8217;m going to do something that&amp;#8217;s going to make me money.&amp;#8221;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It isn&amp;#8217;t too different from the anticipation for sex, Ms. Baker added. &amp;#8220;In some ways, it&amp;#8217;s better to hope than get,&amp;#8221; she said.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Of course, this kind of stimulation can be dangerous. And that is why Ms. Baker said it is important to be mindful of two major factors in our control: environment and motivation. A trading floor isn&amp;#8217;t that much different from a floor of a casino in that regard. There is a lot of social support for addictive behavior.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;And what are our motives? Are we trying to impress people? Empower ourselves? Is it tied to our self-esteem?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Ultimately, the difference between healthy investing and gambling comes back to the thrill. When that becomes the sole purpose of buying and selling securities, investors have crossed the line. They are gamblers.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;They will be until the thrill and, likely the money, is gone.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;(From June 16th article in Wall Street Journal by David Weidner)&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</description><link>http://www.zackshepard.net/post/8473284108</link><guid>http://www.zackshepard.net/post/8473284108</guid><pubDate>Thu, 04 Aug 2011 11:40:02 -0400</pubDate><category>investing</category><category>investor behavior</category><category>trading</category></item><item><title>From The Economist:
SOME people recite history from above,...</title><description>&lt;img src="http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lno3qhg0xy1qzxargo1_500.gif"/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;p&gt;From The Economist:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;span&gt;SOME people recite history from above, recording the grand deeds of great men. Others tell history from below, arguing that one person’s life is just as much a part of mankind’s story as another’s. If people do make history, as this democratic view suggests, then two people make twice as much history as one. Since there are almost 7 billion people alive today, it follows that they are making seven times as much history as the 1 billion alive in 1811. The chart below shows a population-weighted history of the past two millennia. By this reckoning, over 28% of all the history made since the birth of Christ was made in the 20th century. Measured in years lived, the present century, which is only ten years old, is already “longer” than the whole of the 17th century. This century has made an even bigger contribution to economic history. Over 23% of all the goods and services made since 1AD were produced from 2001 to 2010, according to an updated version of Angus Maddison’s figures.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</description><link>http://www.zackshepard.net/post/7127356034</link><guid>http://www.zackshepard.net/post/7127356034</guid><pubDate>Fri, 01 Jul 2011 14:37:00 -0400</pubDate><category>economy</category></item><item><title>The complicated transaction of the pencil is a fascinating story...</title><description>&lt;iframe width="400" height="328" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/4ERbC7JyCfU?wmode=transparent&amp;autohide=1&amp;egm=0&amp;hd=1&amp;iv_load_policy=3&amp;modestbranding=1&amp;rel=0&amp;showinfo=0&amp;showsearch=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;p&gt;The complicated transaction of the pencil is a fascinating story to learn about free markets and capitalism.  Milton Friedman discusses.&lt;/p&gt;</description><link>http://www.zackshepard.net/post/5217376625</link><guid>http://www.zackshepard.net/post/5217376625</guid><pubDate>Thu, 05 May 2011 09:12:14 -0400</pubDate><category>free markets</category><category>capitalism</category></item><item><title>Dimensional CEO David Booth on markets.  </title><description>&lt;object data="http://www.dfaus.com/swf/player.swf" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=10,0,0,0" width="400" height="227" id="player"&gt;&lt;param name="AllowScriptAccess" value="always" /&gt;&lt;param name="FlashVars" value="&amp;xmlFile=http://www.dfaus.com/xml/current_aftershock_public.xml&amp;elang=usen" /&gt;&lt;param name="movie" value="http://www.dfaus.com/swf/player.swf" /&gt;&lt;param name="bgcolor" value="#C7E3EF" /&gt;&lt;param name="allowFullScreen" value="true" /&gt;&lt;/object&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;p&gt;Dimensional CEO David Booth on markets.  &lt;/p&gt;</description><link>http://www.zackshepard.net/post/3877661177</link><guid>http://www.zackshepard.net/post/3877661177</guid><pubDate>Tue, 15 Mar 2011 11:16:27 -0400</pubDate></item><item><title>Economics 101: Learning From Sweden’s Free Market...</title><description>&lt;iframe width="400" height="323" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/ENDE8ve35f0?wmode=transparent&amp;autohide=1&amp;egm=0&amp;hd=1&amp;iv_load_policy=3&amp;modestbranding=1&amp;rel=0&amp;showinfo=0&amp;showsearch=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ENDE8ve35f0&amp;feature=share" target="_blank"&gt;Economics 101: Learning From Sweden’s Free Market Renaissance&lt;/a&gt; (via &lt;a href="http://youtube.com/user/CFPEcon101" target="_blank"&gt;CFPEcon101&lt;/a&gt;)&lt;/p&gt;</description><link>http://www.zackshepard.net/post/3722244280</link><guid>http://www.zackshepard.net/post/3722244280</guid><pubDate>Tue, 08 Mar 2011 09:08:46 -0500</pubDate></item><item><title>One of the steps in the Free Market Fiduciary Process is to know...</title><description>&lt;iframe width="400" height="300" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/K5WpOknON9Q?wmode=transparent&amp;autohide=1&amp;egm=0&amp;hd=1&amp;iv_load_policy=3&amp;modestbranding=1&amp;rel=0&amp;showinfo=0&amp;showsearch=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;p&gt;One of the steps in the Free Market Fiduciary Process is to know all of the fees associated with your 401k.  This video explains just how much and how many different fees you could be looking at.  Fiduciaries need to be aware of these hidden and exorbitant fees because they are ultimately personally liable.  &lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“The hidden transaction charges reflecting commissions and spreads on trades, for example, are a very real cost, and they eat into investment returns just like any other cost” &lt;em&gt;Peter Fitzgerald, Senator IL and Co-Sponsor Broad Mutual Fund Reform Act 2004.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</description><link>http://www.zackshepard.net/post/3423597373</link><guid>http://www.zackshepard.net/post/3423597373</guid><pubDate>Mon, 21 Feb 2011 08:48:40 -0500</pubDate><category>401k</category><category>investing</category></item><item><title>Thomas Sowell speaks to TheDC about the financial crisis, health care, and his ideological transformation from Marxism to conservatism | The Daily Caller</title><description>&lt;a href="http://dailycaller.com/2011/01/24/thomas-sowell-speaks-to-thedc-about-the-financial-crisis-health-care-and-his-ideological-transformation-from-marxism-to-conservatism/"&gt;Thomas Sowell speaks to TheDC about the financial crisis, health care, and his ideological transformation from Marxism to conservatism | The Daily Caller&lt;/a&gt;: &lt;p&gt;This may be one of the most important things you ever read.&lt;/p&gt;</description><link>http://www.zackshepard.net/post/2975874175</link><guid>http://www.zackshepard.net/post/2975874175</guid><pubDate>Fri, 28 Jan 2011 09:53:00 -0500</pubDate></item></channel></rss>

